Do some months close green more often than others? We counted every monthly candle from October 2011 to September 2026 for four Indian indices: NIFTY, BANKNIFTY, SENSEX and FINNIFTY. That is 15 candles for each calendar month per index, and 60 candles per month in total.
The results
| Month | Result across the 4 indices |
|---|---|
| April | 43 of 60 candles green |
| October | 43 of 60 green |
| May | 39 of 60 green |
| July | 39 of 60 green |
| June | 38 of 60 green |
| November | 37 of 60 green (no overall verdict in our research) |
| January | 37 of 60 red |
| February | 37 of 60 red |
| March, August, September, December | No clear winner |
The wider picture
We ran the same count for the calendar years 2011 to 2025 across a much wider universe. April stood out again:
- Across 41 NSE indices and SENSEX: 68% of April candles were green, and February was the weakest month at 29%.
- Across 213 F&O stocks: 63.5% of April candles were green.
- Across the NIFTY 500 stocks with data: 64.1% of April candles were green.
What this does and doesn't mean
Even the strongest month, April, had 17 red candles out of 60. A seasonal tendency is context: a reason to look harder, not a reason to buy. It says nothing certain about next April, and it must always sit behind your trend, levels and risk rules.
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